A decade following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in universities but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two pieces that strive for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a negligent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses important lessons to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
